![]() ![]() It could tamp down day-to-day volatility.”īiden would be expected to take a softer tone with Europe on trade. “We’ll definitely see a return to a more traditional approach to governance. “When we were in the throes of the tariff wars, we saw significant volatility,” said Kristina Hooper, chief market strategist at Invesco. Jamie Dimon: Respect the democratic process - and the election outcome Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg via Getty Images Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg/Getty Images The summit features discussions with Americas top chief executive officers, government leaders and industry experts on ideas and policies. Jamie Dimon, chairman and chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co., listens during a Business Roundtable CEO Innovation Summit discussion in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Thursday, Dec. Investors were left guessing: Were tariffs were ramping up or down? That environment also made it difficult for Corporate America to determine where to invest overseas and how to manage intricate supply chains. The unpredictable trade war between the United States and China has also caused significant turbulence on Wall Street. “Hearing from the chief of staff doesn’t really matter because he can be overruled in a tweet,” said Boltansky. And it has also made it hard for investors to put much weight into what his lieutenants say. Trump’s unpredictable style has kept his political opponents and adversaries off balance. The election isn't over but Wall Street is already celebrating. Photographer: Stefani Reynolds/Bloomberg via Getty Images Stefani Reynolds/Bloomberg/Getty Images Joe Biden stood on the brink of claiming the presidency from Donald Trump on Thursday, with a handful of states expecting to complete their vote counts despite Republicans opening legal fights to stop counting in at least two states. “The reality TV-like cycle, when it came to different advisers and appointees, made it difficult to forecast actual policymaking.”įog surrounds the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Thursday, Nov. “Rex Tillerson feels like four lifetimes ago,” said Boltansky. Who is the president happy with? Who is serving in an acting capacity?” said Isaac Boltansky, director of policy research at Compass Point Research & Trading.įor instance, former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was famously fired in 2018 over Twitter after 14 months on the job. “We all spent a lot of time on the palace intrigue of who’s in and who’s out. That is important for investors because federal officials set policy, hence the saying: “personnel is policy.” The Trump era has brought an unprecedented amount of turnover to the executive branch, as the president has had four chiefs of staff in as many years, and constant speculation has swirled about firings of other officials. ![]() Michael Strobaek, global chief investment officer at Credit Suisse, told clients in a report Friday: “After a short period of uncertainty, we believe Joe Biden has secured a majority of Electoral College votes to become the next US president.” “The market is pricing in a split government: a Biden victory and a Republican majority in the Senate,” said Mills. Markets surged through the first four trading days this week as investors celebrated the likelihood of divided government – gridlock that removes the threat of sweeping legislation such as tax hikes. Wall Street is already preparing for a Biden presidency – even though the race has not been called by CNN or other major news outlets. ![]() Isaac Boltansky, director of policy research at Compass Point Research & Trading ‘The reality TV-like cycle, when it came to different advisers and appointees, made it difficult to forecast actual policymaking.” Even if there’s uncertainty, it will take a longer time to play out and will take a more predictable path.” “Investors spent the last four years one tweet away from major market moves,” said Ed Mills, Washington policy analyst at Raymond James. That could reduce uncertainty for markets, especially in key areas such as trade policy, foreign relations and negotiations with Congress on ways to revive the economy. If the presidency goes to Biden, a conventional politician with 40 years of experience in Washington, he is expected to govern with the kind of steadiness that investors crave. Whether a verbal assault on the Federal Reserve chairman or a sudden decision to lob tariffs on China or an attack on a major American company like General Motors, there hasn’t been a dull moment. ![]() The chaotic nature of the Trump era has left investors constantly on the edge of their seats. During the 2020 campaign, President Donald Trump sought to undercut Joe Biden’s popularity by calling him “Sleepy Joe.” But on Wall Street, a return to stability and predictability in Washington – which the industry expects Biden would bring – would be welcomed. ![]()
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